Still Moving Toward a 2020-21 Season
By Scott Lowe - DMVHockey.com
Heading into Memorial Day, with the COVID curve seemingly flattened and the world starting to open up, confidence about a youth and junior hockey season starting at least somewhat close to on time in September was high.Colleges and prep schools, of course, were a different story as those programs had to consider the safety of hundreds or thousands of students who would be coming back to campus and living together in addition to the student-athletes in their athletic programs.
Today, with COVID numbers going in the wrong direction in most of the country and more restrictions being put in place almost daily, the confidence level is not as high – at least not for a close-to-normal start to the season.
Given the fact that hockey is happening in some locations now – many of the annual summer tournaments in Massachusetts have been moved to places such as New Hampshire and Connecticut – it seems likely that there will be some form of hockey in the fall.
If there are showcase tournaments being held in those areas now, it stands to reason that as long as those states continue to permit indoor athletic competition there should be opportunities for youth teams to travel to those locations to compete in September and October tournaments just as they often would during those months in a normal year.
But it’s not as simple as it looks.
COVID numbers have been spiking nationally for several weeks – admittedly the numbers have been way worse in states that attempted to reopen earlier and more rapidly than those that didn’t – but it has become a national trend, with 36 of our 50 states now considered to be high or very-high risk.
Overall, the national percentage of positive cases the past seven days was 8.7 percent, which is up 3.6 percent from the prior seven days. The seven-day average of daily deaths is up 18.6 percent, and as a nation we are approaching 140,000 deaths, with 1.1 million active cases and more than 4 million total cases to date.
In general, Maryland, Virginia and D.C. – as well as most of the Northeast – has done a better job than the rest of the country as far as controlling the spread of COVID, but after nearly two months of having a positivity rate below 4 percent, Maryland moved above 5 percent this week. Virginia jumped above 6 percent, and D.C.’s percentage has increased by almost 40 percent, but still is only at 2.2 percent.
All three jurisdictions currently are considered high risk because of recent pocketed outbreaks, as is Delaware, while surrounding states Pennsylvania and West Virginia are medium risk. Delaware also is considered high risk, as are New Jersey, New York, Rhode Island, New Hampshire, Vermont and Maine. Massachusetts has moved into the high-risk category with a low 2.2 percent positivity rate but a 14-percent increase over the previous week.
This is where it gets tricky. What’s good for some states, clubs, leagues and age levels may not be good for others.
For example, locally we are still not supposed to be playing full-contact, 5-on-5 hockey games with players on benches. And for the most part we are supposed to be limited to a certain number of players on the ice. I can assure you that there are rinks and organizations not following these rules with tryouts going on and adult-league teams renting ice.
You can get away with that in the summer. But when governing bodies such as the PVAHA, our local USA Hockey affiliate organization; leagues such as the CBHL; and referee-assignors such as SHOA get involved, teams will not be able to play games in our area while state and local restrictions are in place.
For most teams below the AA level, that means game opportunities will be limited unless they are willing to travel to somewhere like Pennsylvania every weekend until our area opens up more. CBHL games and non-league matchups between local teams likely won’t be able to be scheduled unless non-check games with other social-distancing restrictions are approved locally.
Even then you have to figure out the spectator situation. Having no parents or other spectators present for Pee Wees and above likely would work fine, but is it realistic to do that with Mites and Squirts? So then do you allow one parent or adult per player? And what about the benches? Maybe some kids stand and some sit with an “X” used to mark where the players can be?
That all might be doable and might allow for league games at the younger levels and scrimmages that at least resemble real hockey for the older age groups. However, when travel becomes essential – and more acceptable – at the AA and AAA levels, the situation becomes even more clouded.
There are enough AA teams in our area that those teams could at least compete locally if non-check games of some sort are permitted. And many AA teams that travel regularly and compete in leagues such as the EJEPL might have no problem heading off to Pennsylvania, Connecticut or New Hampshire several times early in the season to play in tournaments or face league teams in weekend series.
At the AAA and junior levels, where travel is expected and essential, the options may be more limited. The Little Caps and Team Maryland aren’t going to want to play non-contact scrimmages against each other every weekend. That may be fine on some odd weekends when a break from travel is needed or there are no showcases or tournaments being held, but these teams are going to want and need to compete if Tier 1 teams in their leagues and throughout the Northeast are playing.
That means there will be no home games and potentially even more travel than normal. Perhaps some AYHL league or non-league games can be scheduled in Pennsylvania. Maybe all the teams from a particular age group can meet in one location in Pennsylvania or Connecticut for a weekend to play three or four league games. And there certainly are likely to be showcases and tournaments in Connecticut, New Hampshire and Pennsylvania to attend.
That all sounds pretty easy on the surface, but the expense and time commitment involved in playing all road games in September, October and maybe November actually seems pretty daunting.
Travel also is a consideration. Kids and families often travel and room together on the overnight trips. It’s likely this would be discouraged or not permitted, so does that mean every kid will need to have a parent available to travel in order to make a trip?
Travel is what makes things difficult for junior teams as well, since putting full teams onto a bus for a road trip that lasts several hours and then having them share hotel rooms for a night or two seems risky at best. Can a full team be socially distanced enough on a bus for that to be safe? And would programs like Potomac, which usually has its Premier and Elite teams traveling together, have to incur the additional expense of chartering two buses?
Travel is what makes things difficult for junior teams as well, since putting full teams onto a bus for a road trip that lasts several hours and then having them share hotel rooms for a night or two seems risky at best. Can a full team be socially distanced enough on a bus for that to be safe? And would programs like Potomac, which usually has its Premier and Elite teams traveling together, have to incur the additional expense of chartering two buses?
For the Patriots, home-and-home weekends with no overnight stays against teams like Richmond and Hampton Roads have become the norm over the years, so that can continue maybe with an extra bus chartered. But what about the trips to Charlotte and Wake Forest in North Carolina and the four showcases Potomac usually plays?
“We are scheduled to start on time with games for our region starting the weekend of Sept. 25,” Potomac Premier head coach Zach Vit said in a text message. “I know {the USPHL} is looking to format the schedule to minimize overnight trips, and backing down from four to three showcases.”
Other USPHL junior coaches have indicated they will have an Oct. 1 start date for games, with more of a regionalized approach to scheduling.
Other USPHL junior coaches have indicated they will have an Oct. 1 start date for games, with more of a regionalized approach to scheduling.
“Games will start Oct. 1,” said a Mid-Atlantic USPHL head coach. “I think we are doing three showcases instead of five. There will be 32 games against teams within our division and 12 games in showcases – one showcase in New Jersey and one in New England.”
Apparently the 13-team NCDC will be splitting into North and South divisions, too, with teams playing more games against teams that don’t require overnight stays and fewer games against the rest of the league in showcases. Commons sense dictates that the South Division would consist of the Connecticut Jr. Rangers, PAL Jr. Islanders (Long Island), New Jersey Rockets, Jersey Hitmen and Philadelphia Hockey Club, with the North including the South Shore Kings, New Hampshire Monarchs, Northern Cyclones, Boston Advantage, Twin City (Maine) Thunder and Islanders Hockey Club. The Utica Comets are the lone outlier, but it seems like they would slide to the South.
Apparently the 13-team NCDC will be splitting into North and South divisions, too, with teams playing more games against teams that don’t require overnight stays and fewer games against the rest of the league in showcases. Commons sense dictates that the South Division would consist of the Connecticut Jr. Rangers, PAL Jr. Islanders (Long Island), New Jersey Rockets, Jersey Hitmen and Philadelphia Hockey Club, with the North including the South Shore Kings, New Hampshire Monarchs, Northern Cyclones, Boston Advantage, Twin City (Maine) Thunder and Islanders Hockey Club. The Utica Comets are the lone outlier, but it seems like they would slide to the South.
Many NCDC clubs have their players drive to games that are located with two hours of their home city. For example, Connecticut players have driven to games on Long Island and New Jersey – and vice versa – during the league’s first three years. The same goes for many of the teams in New England, with Boston-area and New Hampshire teams having players drive to games against each other. That can continue, minimizing the safety issues involved with putting entire teams on buses.
New Jersey presents a whole different set of issues, however, as this week the state added Maryland and Virginia to a list of 31 states that are on their 14-day quarantine list. Anyone traveling outside of New Jersey to one of those states and returning must quarantine for 14 days. Likewise, anyone coming into Jersey from one of the 31 states must quarantine for 14 days. Delaware also is on the list, but Massachusetts, Connecticut, New York and New Hampshire are not.
For junior leagues like the NCDC and USPHL Premier, with no Maryland or Virginia teams needing to travel there except maybe for a showcase, this list doesn’t present much of an issue. For the Tier 1 AYHL, however, which includes Team Maryland and the Little Caps as well as New Jersey-based teams such as the North Jersey Avalanche, New Jersey Devils, Mercer Chiefs, New Jersey Colonials and New Jersey Titans, the scheduling headaches are obvious.
The New Jersey quarantine list also has the potential to impact the Team Maryland EHL junior team and the NAHL Maryland Black Bears, both of whom face opponents from the Garden State. There are two EHL teams in New Jersey, the 87s and Protec Ducks, while the Titans are the only NAHL organization located there.
It would seem easy enough for those teams to play each other somewhere in Pennsylvania if the current restrictions are not lifted. Sources have told me that the NAHL is considering pushing its start date back to October.
The EHL announced in May that it was targeting a Sept. 18 start date, which at this point seems optimistic. The league is scheduled to hold showcases in Massachusetts Sept. 28-30, Oct. 16-18 and Nov. 7-9, with events slated for Connecticut, New Hampshire and Providence in mid-December, January and March. Perhaps sites of the first two showcases can be switched with the December and January events, with the league using that Sept. 28 weekend to begin its season.
The Providence dates in March are for reserved for the final rounds of the EHL Playoffs.
The easiest solution – along with the possibility of scheduling league weekends for multiple teams in places where games are permitted – for the AYHL would be to push the start of league play back until October or later to see how the situation progresses.
Another possibility would be to have three or four teams converge for a series of games over a weekend in a location where all the clubs are allowed to play. For example, Team Maryland could travel to Ice Works in Aston, Pa., to face the Little Flyers and a New Jersey team – or even two New Jersey teams – on a given weekend until restrictions are lifted.
The problem with delaying the start of league play is that teams need to book ice time in advance and plan out their seasons to make sure that they have enough games and are giving their players’ full value for their tuition. What happens if you plan to begin league play in October and restrictions have not been lifted in some areas?
With that in mind, the best plan might be for youth teams to follow the lead of most colleges when it comes to league play. Allow teams to practice and play non-league games in areas where they are allowed to play through December and start league play January 1.
For youth teams from our area that can’t or won’t travel as much, there might be a heavy dose of non-contact or otherwise-modified games in the fall months, but that seems to provide the best odds of completing a league season while allowing kids to be on the ice doing what they love and developing.
Traditionally, most youth hockey games are crammed into the months of September-December, with fewer games being played after the holidays. Why not just flip flop that for once?
Maybe USA Hockey can be flexible and push its National Championships back several weeks to give teams plenty of time to complete league play. Or maybe league schedules can be condensed. Of course, this may be inconvenient for teams located in areas of the country that are currently facing fewer or no on-ice restrictions.
No matter how you look at it, despite the recent surge in COVID-19 cases, there seems to be every reason to be optimistic that we will have a youth and junior hockey season in 2020-21. As we have preached all along, it just may take a little time, patience, extra effort and creativity to figure it all out.